Ministry of Economy lowered GDP forecast: how much will economic growth slow down

GDP Growth Forecasts for Ukraine for 2023-2028

According to ХВИЛЯ: The Ministry of Economy of Ukraine has revised its GDP growth forecasts for 2023 and 2024, lowering them to 2.1% and 2.4% respectively. Additionally, the growth forecasts for 2027 and 2028 have also been reduced, as well as the expectations regarding foreign trade and inflation. These data came as a result of a consensus forecast conducted in October 2023.

According to the new estimates, the GDP growth forecast for 2023 has been lowered from 2.9% to 2.1%. For 2024, a growth rate of 2.4% is expected, which is also a decrease from the previous forecast of 3.9%. Additionally, the GDP growth forecasts for 2027 have been reduced from 4.6% to 4.1%, while for 2028, from 5% to 4.2%.

Changes in Foreign Trade and Inflation

Changes have also affected foreign trade. The export forecast for 2025 changed from an increase of 3.6% to a decrease of 0.2%. At the same time, the import forecast for 2025 rose from 3.8% to 13.7%. This indicates an expected increase in the demand for imported goods.

Regarding inflation, the consumer inflation forecast for 2026 has been worsened to 9%. It has also been determined that the exchange rate forecast for the hryvnia at the end of 2024 will be 44.5 UAH per dollar. The budget deficit estimate for 2024 is 19.1% of GDP.

These changes in economic forecasts reflect the current situation in the country and may impact the further development of the economy of Ukraine. An important task for the Ukrainian authorities will remain ensuring stability and supporting economic growth in the future.