US Peace Plan: Limiting Ukraine's Army to 600,000 and Negotiations with Russia

Peace Agreement with Russia and Security Guarantees for Ukraine

According to ХВИЛЯ: US Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced the intention to conclude a peace agreement with Russia before discussing security guarantees for Ukraine. This plan has become a key element of the proposals voiced to Kyiv, which also mention limiting the number of Ukrainian armed forces to 600,000 personnel. According to Rubio, such steps are part of the US strategic approach to ensuring stability in the region.

According to the information provided by the Secretary of State, since February 2022, the US has provided Ukraine with military assistance amounting to nearly 67 billion dollars. However, to maintain an army of 800,000 personnel, Ukraine needs about 60 billion dollars annually. At the same time, the forecast for Ukraine's social expenditures is 3% of GDP, which is approximately 6 billion dollars per year, and planned expenditures for veteran healthcare reach 10 billion dollars. Meanwhile, Ukraine's national debt stands at 100% of GDP, complicating funding for the country's defense needs.

Donald Trump's Peace Plan

In the context of Donald Trump's peace plan, which consists of 28 points, an important proposal is the security guarantees for Ukraine, which will be discussed during the negotiations in Geneva. Additionally, the creation of a coalition of 33 countries is planned to deploy European troops in Ukraine.

As noted by Don Bacon, if Ukraine has to give up any territories, this will require security agreements with NATO and the US in accordance with Article 5, as this is the only way to prevent the recurrence of aggression from Russia.

These initiatives reflect a shift in approaches to resolving the conflict in Ukraine and ensuring its security. If the peace agreement is implemented and the armed forces are reduced, Ukraine will need to find a balance between security and the economic situation, which remains difficult. The negotiations in Geneva could become a decisive stage in shaping new relations between Ukraine, the US, and Russia, as well as in defining the future security environment in the region.