Ukraine’s Population Drops to Between 22 and 25 Million

Estimates for Ukraine’s Government-Controlled Population

According to Главком: Denis Ulutin, Ukraine’s Minister of Social Policy, estimates the population of government-controlled areas at 22 to 25 million people. This figure highlights major demographic shifts occurring within the country. In contrast, Ella Libanova, director of the Institute of Demography at the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, provides a higher estimate of around 29 million. Last year, the population stood at roughly 30 million, indicating a clear decline.

Data on Ukrainians in the EU

As of February 2026, approximately 4.4 million Ukrainians reside in European Union countries. Fewer than one million have returned, underscoring how long many have stayed abroad. These numbers reflect the difficult situation faced by Ukrainians who left the country due to the war.

Reasons for Population Decline

The population drop is tied to mortality rates and an overall demographic crisis. Denys Ulutin emphasized this issue, stating:

'I believe fewer people live in the controlled territory. This is a catastrophe.'

Experts are deeply concerned, as this trend could have serious consequences for the nation’s social and economic development.

Forecast of a New Migration Wave

Ella Libanova has warned that a new wave of migration could follow the lifting of martial law. This might further alter a population that has already suffered significant losses. The situation demands attention from both the state and society, as the country’s future depends on its demographic stability.

The shrinking population in Ukraine points to deep social and economic challenges that could worsen amid the ongoing conflict. The large number of Ukrainians abroad, along with predictions of another migration surge after martial law ends, calls for a comprehensive approach to demographic policy. This issue requires urgent action, as population stability is key to the country’s recovery and long-term development.

The ongoing population decline in Ukraine is not just a national concern but a global phenomenon, as highlighted in a recent analysis of demographic trends. Understanding how Ukraine's situation compares to other countries facing similar issues can provide valuable insights. For a deeper look at the alarming statistics surrounding this decline, you can explore more in detail about the country's population drop leading worldwide trends.