How Ukraine’s Central Bank and Statistics Service Are Innovating Economic Data Amid War

European Statistics Week in Ukraine

According to НБУ: During the "European Statistics Week in Ukraine," organized by the State Statistics Service (Derzhstat), Taras Tokarchuk, Director of the Monetary Policy and Economic Analysis Department at the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), highlighted the crucial role of both official statistics and alternative data sources for informed decision-making by government bodies and businesses. He emphasized ongoing efforts to modernize statistical reporting, the NBU’s publications, and the unique challenges faced by statistical agencies during wartime.

Derzhstat recently completed a major overhaul of official statistics by launching a new data portal that significantly improves public access to information. Tokarchuk expressed appreciation for Derzhstat’s initiative. The NBU relies on official data to generate its own forecasts, which it publishes quarterly in the Inflation Report and monthly in the Macroeconomic and Monetary Review. Each year, the NBU rigorously evaluates the accuracy of its projections to enhance their reliability.

Leveraging Alternative Data Sources

Following the onset of the full-scale invasion, Derzhstat temporarily suspended many statistical releases, creating obstacles to obtaining critical economic information. In response, the NBU turned to alternative data streams such as satellite imagery, card payment statistics, and cash turnover figures to assess the economic environment. The bank has been systematically integrating these unconventional data sources since 2015. This approach allows the NBU to provide timely assessments of inflation trends, economic activity, and the impacts of military strikes.

Tokarchuk pointed out that labor market data remains the largest gap in available statistics. Restoring regular labor force surveys by Derzhstat is a top priority. Meanwhile, the NBU uses indirect indicators like job search website analytics to estimate labor market conditions, though these methods cannot fully replace official employment and unemployment statistics.

The current state of official statistics in Ukraine, especially amid the ongoing conflict, remains complex. Reinstating regular labor market surveys and continuing the modernization of statistical systems are vital for accurately evaluating the country’s economic situation. The NBU’s use of alternative data underscores the necessity for institutions to adapt swiftly to the evolving challenges posed by war and ensure decision-makers have reliable, up-to-date information.