Oracle: A Giant on Clay Feet and a Threat of Depression-2026
February 2026 began for the US tech sector with a warning bell that could turn into a funeral march for the current market cycle. Oracle, once a symbol of stability, found itself at the epicenter of a perfect storm, where debt, overheated AI expectations, and geopolitical games intertwined into one knot.
Chronicle of a System Failure
The year formally started with a 'victory': Oracle obtained a 15% stake in American TikTok, securing its status as the exclusive cloud provider for the social network. But behind the facade of this deal lies a financial catastrophe.
Debt Pit: The corporation's net debt has exceeded $110 billion. Aggressive data center construction (Capex for 2026 raised to a record $50 billion) has drained cash reserves.
Bank Boycott: Leading Wall Street banks (including Blue Owl and TD Cowen) have begun cutting financing for Oracle projects, doubting the profitability of gigantic Nvidia chip farms.
Workforce Cannibalism: To free up at least $8-10 billion in cash, an unprecedented layoff of 20,000 - 30,000 employees is being discussed. Also at stake is the sale of the Cerner division, purchased for $28 billion just three years ago.
AI Bubble: OpenAI Pulls Down
Larry Ellison's main bet is a partnership with OpenAI worth $300 billion. The problem is that OpenAI remains a deeply unprofitable startup burning billions of investors' money.
Without steady support from Oracle, OpenAI risks going down the path of default, which would instantly devalue Oracle's infrastructure built for their needs. The market is frozen: if OpenAI collapses, trillion-dollar valuations of AI companies will evaporate in a week.
Political Detonator
The situation is exacerbated by timing. AI today is the only real growth driver for the S&P 500. Oracle's financial collapse could trigger a domino effect throughout the US economy just as the country enters the final phase of the election race.
Oracle is the 'black swan' No. 1 for the US economy in 2026. If the company does not receive that very $50 billion through new bonds or if OpenAI announces a default, the AI bubble will burst with such a crash that the November elections in the US will take place against the backdrop of the deepest depression.
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