Putin confirmed the revision of forecasts for 2025: GDP of the Russian Federation will fall to 1%

Revision of macroeconomic forecasts for 2025

According to ХВИЛЯ: President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin confirmed the revision of macroeconomic forecasts for 2025, in particular, a decrease in the GDP growth forecast from 2.5% to 1%. This decision was made due to the imbalance in the economy caused by military expenditures. The inflation forecast has also been reduced from 7.6% to 6.8%.

State of the economy and forecasts

Putin noted that the decline in production in certain sectors continues, and believes that growth in certain industries cannot mask the problems observed where there is a noticeable drop. He also emphasized that the decline in production in some sectors is absolutely unacceptable. At the same time, experts consider the GDP growth forecast of 1% to be too optimistic, pointing out the possibility that the official forecast may be below 0.5%.

The key rate of the Central Bank today is 16.5%. The economy of the Russian Federation shows signs of a 'dual' system, and among the main problems of the civilian sectors are highlighted:

• outflow of qualified labor;
• high interest rates;
• impossibility of modernization.

The reduction of the GDP growth forecast reflects serious challenges facing the Russian economy, which, in turn, may have significant consequences for the socio-economic situation in the country. In conditions of high military expenditures and a decrease in production in key sectors, the government must find ways to stabilize the economy to avoid further deterioration of the situation.