Winter Scenario of the Kremlin: Energy War and Hope for Internal Discord in Ukraine

How the Kremlin Reads the Situation in Kyiv

According to ХВИЛЯ: For the Russian reader, it is important to immediately clarify: this is not a forecast, but an assessment by a Western expert based on analysis of Moscow's statements and actions. According to Russian political specialist Mark Galeotti, in an interview with Frontline host Kate Gerbeau, the Kremlin sees the personnel changes and political disputes in Kyiv not as coincidences, but as inevitable cracks that have emerged after a long period of Ukraine's successful resistance. According to the expert, Putin and his entourage's attitude towards Ukrainians is based on disdain: they call Ukraine's unity artificial and attribute it to Western support.

Contempt from the Kremlin is not an emotional reaction, but a conscious stance.

Mark Galeotti

The military logic of Moscow, according to Galeotti, is based on slow attrition and a new winter campaign aimed at the Ukrainian energy system. Putin hopes that Ukraine will begin to crumble from within under the influence of political tension, although this tension does not currently provide Russia with immediate military advantages.

Russia can amplify existing discontent but cannot create political movements from scratch.

Mark Galeotti

This is why the Kremlin continues its previous strategy, betting on internal turmoil that could undermine Ukrainian statehood. The expert believes that the international community must carefully monitor this process: political instability in Ukraine can seriously affect the entire region. The interview translation was published by the publication 'Hvilya'.

Why Ukraine Must Strengthen Unity

The assessment provided by Galeotti confirms that the Kremlin's strategy is built on exploiting internal disagreements. This means that the conflict may become prolonged, and Ukraine faces the task of strengthening its own stability and consolidation.

In the face of constant Russian threats, Ukraine should focus on the following directions:

• strengthening political institutions;
• maintaining support from international partners to counter external challenges.

As the Kremlin continues to exploit internal divisions within Ukraine, the implications of its strategy extend beyond the immediate conflict. The analysis by Mark Galeotti highlights the significance of international perspectives on these developments. For a deeper understanding of how Moscow's miscalculations regarding Western resolve may shape the ongoing situation, see more in our article on Western vulnerabilities and the Kremlin's failed bets.