Xi Jinping's Say-So Determines How Long Putin Can Keep Fighting, Polish Analyst Says

China's Leverage Over Russia

According to ХВИЛЯ: Piotr Kulpa, a Polish expert, argues that Beijing effectively controls whether Russia can continue its military campaign. President Vladimir Putin, he says, is not in a position to fight without the backing of Chinese leader Xi Jinping. Kulpa maintains that the war has stripped Russia of real sovereignty and turned it into a raw-material appendage of China, leaving the Moscow-Beijing relationship resembling a feudal arrangement. Moscow ships resources to China, and in exchange it receives permission to keep waging war.

Russia's Growing Dependence on China

China is Russia's largest trade partner, handling more than a quarter of all Russian trade. Bilateral settlements between the two countries now rely almost exclusively on yuan and rubles. Kulpa notes that Russia cannot find replacements for Chinese markets or imported goods, while China could relatively easily substitute Russian raw materials with supplies from elsewhere.

In his view, the real negotiators over the war's fate are former U.S. President Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, rather than Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Pressure, he says, should not be directed at the Kremlin but at the actors who control Moscow's financial resources.

'Xi Jinping's approval sets the time limit for Putin's war. Without China's consent, Russia has no way to fight. Russia has lost its sovereignty in this conflict and has become a base for supplying raw materials to China. This war serves China's interests above all.' – Piotr Kulpa

Kulpa's remarks underscore how significant the Chinese factor has become in the context of Russia's aggression and how it could reshape international relations. If the war in Ukraine truly depends on Beijing's will, new geopolitical complications are likely, as the interests of the United States and European nations may clash with China's objectives. For Western policymakers, this suggests any strategy toward Ukraine must also take Beijing's influence over Moscow into account.