The only defenses for Putin are the apathy of society and the law enforcement agencies

Analysis of the situation in Russia

According to ХВИЛЯ: American geopolitical analyst Peter Zeihan stated in an interview with Peter Kurzin for The Global Gambit that the main defense of Russian President Vladimir Putin is the deep apathy of society and law enforcement agencies. Zeihan emphasized that he does not see any serious internal threat to Putin as long as soldiers on the front lines do not start shooting at their own commanders. He noted that no commander of the regular army joined Prigozhin's mutiny, and none attempted to stop it. This indicates a significant apathy that prevails even within Russia's law enforcement structures.

The state of the Russian army

Zeihan also pointed out that the march of Prigozhin's columns towards Moscow was the most accurate marker of the state of the Russian system. He believes that the army is neither ready to support a revolt against the Kremlin nor to defend it. According to an UN special report, at least 50,000 Russian soldiers have deserted since 2022, which represents approximately one in ten who are fighting in Ukraine. The practice of soldiers voluntarily surrendering to the authorities and hiring lawyers to receive a real sentence and avoid returning to the front line has become commonplace. According to Meduza, cases against such fugitives are often not opened, and they are forcibly sent to assault units.

Zeihan believes that a political breakdown without a significantly deeper economic collapse is unlikely, as the Kremlin has another seven million men who can be mobilized. Thus, the situation in Russia remains complex, but according to the analyst, the threat to Putin's regime is not currently relevant in the absence of serious internal conflicts.

Zeihan's statements reflect a disturbing picture of internal stability in Russia, where apathy and the lack of active resistance to the authorities may indicate possible long-term consequences for the political system.

Peter Zeihan

Despite this, potential mobilization of additional resources could strengthen the Kremlin's positions in the short term. Thus, the further development of events in Russia will remain under the close watch of analysts and experts who monitor changes in the socio-political situation in the country.