ISW Report: Russia's Winter Offensive Against Ukraine's Energy Grid Fails to Achieve Key Objectives

Russia's 2025-2026 Winter Campaign

According to Главком: According to an Institute for the Study of War (ISW) report, Russia failed to meet the objectives of its 2025-2026 winter campaign, which targeted Ukraine's energy and civilian infrastructure. The campaign involved the use of long-range missiles and drones in an attempt to cripple Ukraine's power grid and pressure its civilian population. This strategy is part of a broader pattern of Russian attacks on critical infrastructure since the full-scale invasion began in 2022.

Moscow's Aims and the Outcome

Moscow's specific goals were to degrade Ukraine's energy security, weaken its industrial capacity, and undermine public morale for resistance. The campaign's central concept was to:

• split the Ukrainian power grid in two;
• create isolated "energy islands" disconnected from the main systems for power generation, supply, and transmission.

However, as ISW analysts note,

“Russian forces did not achieve their goal of splitting the Ukrainian power grid in two and creating energy islands.”

Despite Russia's efforts, its attacks did not halt the development of Ukraine's defense industry. Meanwhile, Russia is preparing a new wave of attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure, including the water supply system. These actions indicate a continuation of the conflict and Russia's attempts to pressure Ukraine by striking critical civilian infrastructure. The resilience of Ukraine's energy sector, bolstered by Western aid and rapid repairs, has been a significant factor in countering this strategy.

This information underscores that despite Russia's aggressive strategy, the Ukrainian people and infrastructure have demonstrated remarkable resilience. The ongoing support of the international community remains crucial for Ukraine's ability to withstand this pressure. The situation remains tense, and Russia's future actions could have serious consequences for regional security and stability.