US Demands Ukraine Withdraw from Donbas While Preparing Sanctions Relief for Russia and Calls to Halt Attacks on Oil Refineries

US Demands and the Current Situation in Ukraine

According to ХВИЛЯ: The United States has insisted that Ukraine pull its forces out of the Donbas region without receiving any concessions in return. Washington is also urging Kyiv to stop targeting Russian oil refineries. At the same time, the US is considering easing sanctions on Russia, including the potential resumption of Russian gas exports to Europe, establishing a "framework security agreement" between Europe and Russia, and addressing frozen assets linked to the company Lukoil. Former President Trump connects these actions to the upcoming US Congressional elections scheduled for November 3, where Republicans face an 11.5% chance of retaining control of the House of Representatives and a 27.6% chance in the Senate.

Since October 12, during two ballistic missile strikes on Kyiv, the US has not provided Ukraine with advance warnings of the launches. Officially, the Starshield system communications are cut off when speeds reach around 160 km/h, but in some units, the connection was lost at much lower speeds of 60-80 km/h. Talks are ongoing to restore full operational capability of this system.

Russia's Mobilization Preparations and Strategic Outlook

Meanwhile, Russia has made little progress on the battlefield but is preparing for a possible large-scale mobilization. Although the Kremlin has yet to make a formal decision on new conscription, organizational steps are already underway. The winter of 2026-2027 is projected to be the toughest period since the full-scale invasion began, and a stable ceasefire before spring appears unlikely.

A source close to the matter shared that "the Americans are demanding a withdrawal from Donbas without offering anything in exchange."

According to this insider, such a stance could lead to further Russian demands for territorial concessions, including areas like Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. The source also noted that Trump views the situation as a straightforward deal, indifferent to the consequences for Ukraine.

Additionally, the source mentioned that the US is reluctant to apply pressure and seems inclined to negotiate some form of territorial compromise, believing that appeasing Russia might bring it to the negotiation table. However, it remains difficult to envision an agreement where Ukraine cedes territory or acknowledges losses, as this could trigger even greater setbacks.

In closing, the informant emphasized that Russia's ultimate goal remains unchanged: to secure Ukraine's neutral status and gain Western recognition of Ukraine as falling within Russia’s sphere of influence. This objective, they said, shows no signs of shifting at present.

These developments highlight the complex geopolitical dynamics and evolving relationships between the US, Ukraine, and Russia amid ongoing conflict. The US demands reflect a potential shift in approach that raises concerns over Ukraine making territorial concessions. Meanwhile, Russia’s ongoing preparations for expanded military action could significantly shape the future trajectory of the war and regional security.

The ongoing tensions between the US and Ukraine are further complicated by disagreements over Russian diesel imports, as former President Trump criticizes the Biden administration's approach to sanctions and military support. This backdrop of escalating diplomatic friction may influence future negotiations and strategic decisions in the region.