Shortage of contract soldiers in Russia: Ukrainian intelligence expects tightening of mobilization policy

Mobilization expectations: what the numbers say

According to ХВИЛЯ: The Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine states: the Kremlin may switch to a stricter mobilization policy. The reason is the noticeable reduction in the recruitment of contract soldiers. It is important for the Russian reader to understand that the conclusions are based, among other things, on open data - official statistics, vacancies on HeadHunter, and search queries, so they can be verified independently.

According to official figures for January–June 2026, approximately 200,000 people signed contracts with the Ministry of Defense of Russia. This is 5–11% less than in the same period last year, when there were over 210,000. Independent researchers suggest that the real decline may reach 20%. During the same period, 16,000 people signed up for volunteer formations - a year earlier there were more than 18,000.

Another indirect sign of possible mobilization preparation is the noticeable increase in the number of vacancies related to military accounting. By the end of July, there were more than 2,500 such offers on the HeadHunter platform, with almost a third emerging in the last week of the month. Employees for such positions are being sought in Moscow, Saint Petersburg, Samara, Nizhny Novgorod, Belgorod, Kazan, Ufa, Krasnodar, Rostov-on-Don, Yekaterinburg, and Khabarovsk. Employers include Roscosmos, Russian Post, and Rostelecom.

Authorities, regions, and societal moods

Preparatory measures are already being taken at the local level. The Governor of the Moscow region, Andrey Vorobyov, has expanded the powers of the regional headquarters in case of mobilization or introduction of martial law. The Ministry of Labor of Russia recommended that regions prepare migrant workers in advance for potential replacement of workers who may be called up to the army. In July, the number of mobilization requests on Yandex reached 1.2 million, and the share of Russians feeling anxiety grew from 53% to 57% over the week.

Ukrainian intelligence, meanwhile, does not see signs of preparation for a large-scale call-up of reservists. Purchases of medical supplies and military equipment remain roughly at last year's level. Apparently, before the parliamentary elections, the Kremlin will not risk announcing a new wave of mobilization. Instead, the shortage of personnel is likely to be compensated for with financial incentives, administrative pressure on employers, and the redeployment of military personnel between units.

The decrease in the number of contract soldiers and the increase in "military accounting" vacancies may indicate systemic problems in Russia's military sector. The activation of the search for migrant workers, in turn, indicates that the authorities are preemptively laying the groundwork for a potential shortage of labor due to mobilization. Such a situation could exacerbate internal tensions, especially against the backdrop of the upcoming parliamentary elections.