Historic demographic shift: adults aged 65 and older now outnumber children under 5 worldwide

2018 became a turning point for humanity

According to Radiotrek — Світ: In 2018, the world crossed a demographic threshold: for the first time ever, the number of people aged 65 and above surpassed the number of children under five. This milestone was driven by rising life expectancy and declining birth rates. UN projections indicate that the trend will deepen, with older adults possibly representing 21% of the global population by 2074.

What is driving the growth in older populations

The main reason is longevity. Between 1990 and 2024, average global life expectancy rose from 64 years to more than 73 years. Fertility, meanwhile, has dropped sharply: the average number of births per woman fell from 3.31 in 1990 to 2.25 in 2024. Together, these trends explain why the share of older people is climbing.

This aging trajectory is expected to continue. By the late 2070s, the UN forecasts that people aged 65 and older could number more than 2.2 billion, meaning they would also outnumber children under 18. Japan already illustrates this new reality, with roughly 29% of its population aged 65 or over.

Such demographic shifts carry major consequences for economies, social safety nets, and healthcare systems. Policymakers at every level will need to adapt, addressing the needs of older citizens, strengthening pension and medical systems, and ensuring that seniors can maintain a decent quality of life. For English-speaking audiences, these changes underscore a shared challenge across developed nations: how to redesign public services and retirement structures for an aging world.