The government has published planned indicators for the dollar exchange rate and minimum wage until 2029

The Cabinet of Ministers has approved the Budget Declaration for the years 2027-2029 and published the main macroeconomic forecasts on which the state financial policy will be based. In the document, the government expects a gradual economic growth, an increase in the minimum wage and the subsistence minimum, as well as a further weakening of the hryvnia against the dollar. This is reported by Economic Truth.

What the dollar exchange rate will be until 2029

The government's baseline scenario assumes a significant improvement in the security situation and the end of the full-scale war by the beginning of 2027.

With this development of events, the projected dollar exchange rate will be:

• at the end of 2026 — 45.8 UAH;

• in 2027 — 48.3 UAH;

• in 2028 — 50.1 UAH;

• in 2029 — 51.5 UAH.

The government explains that the dollar exchange rate will continue to be influenced by a significant excess of imports over exports.

According to forecasts, the export of goods and services is expected to increase from 55.8 billion dollars in 2026 to 77.46 billion dollars in 2029. At the same time, imports during this period will increase from 125 billion to 151.11 billion dollars.

How the minimum wage will increase

The Budget Declaration also outlines a gradual increase in the minimum wage.

It is expected to be:

• from January 1, 2027 — 9546 UAH;

• from January 1, 2028 — 10,377 UAH;

• from January 1, 2029 — 11,114 UAH.

For comparison, the current minimum wage in Ukraine is 8647 UAH per month.

Thus, starting from early 2027, the minimum wage may increase by almost 900 UAH or more than 10%.

What will happen to pensions and subsistence minimum

Together with the minimum wage, the government forecasts an increase in the subsistence minimum.

The overall subsistence minimum is expected to grow:

• to 3559 UAH in 2027;

• to 3876 UAH in 2028;

• to 4151 UAH in 2029.

For working citizens, this figure will increase from the current 3328 UAH to 4304 UAH in 2029.

The subsistence minimum for persons who have lost their ability to work, which is effectively the minimum pension, will also gradually increase:

• 2878 UAH in 2027;

• 3134 UAH in 2028;

• 3357 UAH in 2029.

How the government sees the economy of Ukraine

According to forecasts, the economy of Ukraine will grow by 1.6% in 2026.

In the following years, the government expects an acceleration in growth rates:

• 4.5% in 2027;

• 5.3% in 2028;

• 6.7% in 2029.

At the same time, the unemployment rate, according to government estimates, will remain relatively stable, staying within 12.6-12.9%.

It should be noted that economist Oleg Pendzin forecasts that in June the hryvnia will undergo inevitable but controlled devaluation.