The Status of Ukrainian Refugees
A December 2025 survey reveals that 43% of Ukrainian refugees intend to return to their homeland, a figure that has remained steady for the past two years. However, the primary obstacle to their return is a lack of safety. More than half of the refugees have either decided against returning or remain undecided, highlighting the ongoing precarious situation within Ukraine.
The war has now persisted for four years, with the vast majority of refugees having fled at the onset of the full-scale invasion in 2022. Despite the prolonged conflict, a significant portion still considers the possibility of going back.
As noted by Iryna Ipolytova, a senior researcher at the Centre for Economic Strategy, 'while the war continues, we should not expect a substantial number of refugees to return.'
Uncertainty and Complexity
Further complicating the picture, approximately 20% of refugees are unable to make a definitive decision about returning, underscoring the profound uncertainty they face. As of December 2025, security remains the pivotal factor influencing the choices of displaced Ukrainians considering a homecoming.
The plight of Ukrainian refugees reflects not only personal hardships but also the broader, challenging conditions in their country. The protracted war has created immense humanitarian and social challenges, making safety a paramount concern for potential returnees. These findings could inform future research and policy development aimed at supporting refugees and facilitating their reintegration into Ukrainian society.
While many Ukrainian refugees contemplate returning home, the forecast from the Central Bank suggests a million might return by 2027, experts remain cautious. The ongoing war and safety concerns continue to shape the decisions of those displaced, indicating that the path back to Ukraine is fraught with challenges.