Analysts predict that the currency market in Ukraine will remain stable at least until 2027. The dollar is unlikely to exceed 48 hryvnias. These forecasts are based on data from the IMF, the government, and the National Bank, published by the head of the analytical department 'Financial Pulse' Dilyara Mustafaieva.
The government anticipates a gradual stabilization of the currency market situation. According to the draft state budget for 2026, the average annual exchange rate will be 45.7 UAH per dollar and 49.4 UAH per euro. The IMF forecasts a rate of 45.4 UAH per dollar in 2026, with a possible increase to 47.5 UAH in 2027.
The National Bank of Ukraine does not make forecasts regarding the exchange rate, but its model shows a decrease in the currency deficit in the private sector starting from 2027. A reduction in the gap between exports and imports from UAH 55.8 billion to UAH 42.8 billion is expected in 2027.
Experts predict an increase in currency supply in the market due to several factors, including improved yields and demand for Ukrainian agricultural products, the recovery of the global economy, growth in IT exports, and the expansion of arms production. An increase in investments in Ukraine is expected from 2027, which will help reduce demand for foreign currency among the population.
The government of Ukraine plans to receive significant international financial support during 2026 and 2027, which will help finance the budget without issuing new money supply. The NBU anticipates that international reserves will reach USD 54 billion by the end of the current year. However, there are serious risks associated with hostilities, possible attacks on critical infrastructure, and potential delays in external financing.