Analysis of the situation in Ukraine
American geopolitical analyst Peter Zeihan noted in an interview with Peter Kurzin for The Global Gambit that for Ukraine to achieve victory, it is necessary to regain Crimea, but that is not enough. According to Zeihan, Ukraine also needs to neutralize or occupy two key Russian cities - Belgorod and Rostov-on-Don - which are important logistical hubs for the Russian war. He emphasized that without these cities, Moscow will lose the ability to project power to the west and the Caucasus.
Zeihan pointed out that Tatarstan and Bashkortostan are territories through which infrastructure connects European Russia with Siberia. Strikes on these logistical hubs have already begun. On the night of July 27, the Ukrainian Defense Forces struck an export terminal in Rostov-on-Don, where a large fire erupted. On August 9, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported the destruction of enemy air defense and logistics in the Rostov region and Krasnodar Krai. In July, two road bridges in Belgorod region were hit, which were used for the transfer of equipment, ammunition, and personnel to the Kupiansk direction.
Predictions and Consequences
According to Zeihan's predictions, the implementation of this scenario could lead to the territorial disintegration of Russia and a return to a space of warring principalities, which has not been observed for the last 300 years.
'For victory, it is not enough for Ukrainians to regain Crimea. They need to neutralize or occupy two Russian cities that serve as logistical hubs for this entire war - Belgorod and Rostov-on-Don. If you remove them from the equation, Russia will lose the ability to project power - and then the entire southern belt of the Russian state will fall apart', Peter Zeihan
Peter Zeihan's predictions highlight the importance of strategic locations in the war between Ukraine and Russia. The presence of Ukrainian-controlled territories in close proximity to key logistical hubs can significantly change the balance of power in the region. The success of the Ukrainian forces in this matter may not only contribute to the liberation of occupied territories but may also lead to serious changes in Russia's internal politics, which, in turn, will have a broad impact on security and stability in Europe.
The ongoing conflict has seen a significant shift, with Ukraine reportedly achieving parity on the battlefield. This evolving dynamic, highlighted in a recent report, underscores the importance of strategic locations in the war. For a deeper understanding of the implications of this shift and the current casualty rates, explore how Ukraine has balanced the scales against Russia.