Japan's Demographic Decline
Japan has recorded its steepest population drop in census history, losing more than three million people over the past five years. As of October 1, 2025, the country's population stood at 123,049,524—a decrease of 3,096,575 compared to 2020. The rate of decline, at 2.5%, is unprecedented, especially when contrasted with the 0.7% drop recorded in the previous 2020 census. This marks the third consecutive census showing a population decrease since 2015, when Japan first recorded a decline since 1920.
Japan's population peaked in 2008 at 128 million. Since then, the nation has lost over five million residents. Among the 47 prefectures, only two—Tokyo and Okinawa—saw population gains:
- Tokyo grew by 199,000 people;
- Okinawa increased by 1,000.
In contrast, the other 45 prefectures experienced losses, with Hokkaido suffering the largest decline of 239,000 residents. For the first time, the Tokyo metropolitan area now accounts for more than 30% of Japan's total population.
Demographic Trends
The number of newborns in 2025 fell to 705,809, continuing a decade-long downward trend. Meanwhile, the foreign resident population in Japan rose to 3.21 million, up from 2.75 million in 2020. Projections indicate that Japan's population could drop below 100 million by 2056, and by 2070 it may shrink to just 87 million. Currently, there are 2.1 workers for every retiree, but that ratio is expected to fall to 1.3 by 2070.
Japan's Minister of Health, Labour and Welfare, Minoru Kihara, commented on the situation: 'The census data once again confirms that the population decline in our country is accelerating.'
Tokyo is growing while rural regions are emptying, highlighting the uneven distribution of people across the country. Japan faces serious demographic challenges that could significantly impact economic development and social stability.
The population decline poses a major challenge for Japan, as a shrinking workforce may lead to economic difficulties and increased strain on social systems, including pensions. The rise in foreign residents could help mitigate this issue, but it requires a comprehensive approach to integration and support for newcomers. Current trends underscore the need for strategies aimed at stabilizing the population and promoting balanced regional development.
The demographic challenges are not unique to Japan; similar trends are observed in other countries. For instance, Ukraine has also experienced a significant population decline, raising concerns about the future workforce and economic stability. Understanding these global patterns can provide insights into the implications of such demographic shifts.