The Evolution of Unmanned Technology in U.S. Military Strategy
In a piece for the Modern War Institute, U.S. Army officer James Cheney argues that unmanned ground systems, rather than aerial drones, will be the decisive factor in determining the victor of future wars. He emphasizes the critical need to develop such systems and to reorient the U.S. Army's procurement priorities accordingly. Cheney stresses that warfare remains a contest of endurance, logistics, physical control, and persistent presence on the battlefield.
Ukraine's recent air defense successes highlight the growing challenge for aerial drones. By December 2025, Ukrainian forces were intercepting approximately 80% of incoming strike drones. On one recent day, Ukrainian units managed to shoot down 96 out of 105 attack drones, demonstrating the increasing effectiveness of modern air defenses against these threats.
The Ground Optionally Autonomous Transport (GOAT) Program
In February 2026, U.S. Army leadership decided to shorten the prototyping phase for the Ground Optionally Autonomous Transport (GOAT) program by two and a half years. This initiative aims to double the cargo capacity to 2,500 pounds, which would significantly enhance battlefield logistics efficiency. The companies American Rheinmetall Vehicles and HDT Expeditionary Systems were jointly awarded $22 million to each build eight prototypes. A potential production order could exceed 2,000 systems.
Key features of the GOAT program include:
- Doubled cargo capacity;
- Increased power generation;
- Reduced acoustic signature;
- A shift toward greater operational autonomy.
For comparison, the existing Squad Multipurpose Equipment Transport can carry up to 1,000 pounds of cargo and operate for up to 72 hours without refueling. These accelerated efforts signal the U.S. Army's growing focus on unmanned ground technologies as potential key assets in future conflicts, where logistics and survivability are paramount.
These adjustments in U.S. military strategy mirror global trends in the use of unmanned technologies, which are increasingly viewed as vital for securing an advantage on the modern battlefield.
James Cheney
Given Ukraine's demonstrated success in countering aerial drones, other nations are likely to intensify their own efforts in developing and deploying similar defensive systems. The advancement of programs like GOAT could fundamentally alter the logistical aspects of warfare, making military operations more flexible and resilient under fire.
As the U.S. Army pivots towards ground drones, the effectiveness of aerial defenses becomes increasingly relevant. Recent advancements in Ukraine's military capabilities, particularly the development of new air defense systems that utilize FPV drones to intercept threats, highlight the ongoing evolution of warfare technology and the necessity for adaptive strategies on the battlefield.