ISET-UA Analytical Study
An analysis by ISET-UA, presented to the Ukrainian Parliament’s Temporary Investigative Commission on Economic Security, reveals a dramatic decline in the share of new cars in the country’s automotive market. This figure dropped from 61.5% in 2008 to just 7.14% in 2025, signaling a fundamental shift in market structure. The study highlights that the market has transformed into a platform for reselling used vehicles, with car imports in 2025 estimated at $6 billion, generating 70 billion hryvnias in customs revenue.
Automotive Market Shifts
Over the past 15 years, the proportion of new cars on Ukraine’s market has fallen from 61.5% to 7.14%. In 2008, citizens purchased 623,200 new vehicles, with the total market reaching approximately 1.01 million cars. By 2025, the overall market had nominally exceeded the 2008 level, reaching 1.25 million vehicles, but only 79,500 of those were new. Domestic resales totaled 895,600 cars, while imports of used vehicles hit 278,600. More than 70% of imported cars are used, with an average age of nine years.
Car imports rose 17% compared to the previous year, confirming the trend of increasing used vehicle numbers in Ukraine. These imports account for about 7% of the country’s total imports, and customs duties from car imports made up nearly a tenth of all customs revenue. In 2024, Ukraine ranked 22nd among European countries in new car sales, a stark contrast to 2008 when it was among the continent’s top seven automotive markets.
The study also uncovered shadow schemes, including forged EUR.1 certificates and undervaluation of customs values by tens of times. Crises impacting the market include the 2008-2009 financial crisis, the annexation of Crimea and hostilities in Donbas starting in 2014, and Russia’s full-scale invasion from February 2022. The liberalization of ‘Euro plate’ imports after 2016 and zero-rate customs clearance in 2022-2023 also shaped market changes. In 2025, Chinese brands captured over half of the new car market for the first time, pointing to emerging trends in Ukraine’s automotive sector.
The shrinking share of new cars in Ukraine’s market reflects serious economic and social challenges the country has faced in recent years. Rising used car imports and the detection of shadow schemes underscore the need for improved legislation and market oversight. The growing presence of Chinese brands may also indicate shifting consumer preferences and the market’s adaptation to global trends. These developments pose additional challenges for Ukrainian manufacturers and new car importers, who must adjust to this new reality.
The significant decline in new vehicle sales in Ukraine is further underscored by recent data showing that nearly 65,500 vehicles were sold in the first quarter of this year. This trend of sluggish new car sales highlights the ongoing shift towards a market dominated by used vehicles, raising questions about the future of the automotive industry in the country.