Business Lending Outlook for Ukraine
A survey by the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) reveals that a majority of the country's banks intend to increase their business lending portfolios in 2026, anticipating stronger demand. The poll, which ran from December 12, 2025, to January 9, 2026, covered 26 banks representing 96% of the banking system's assets. More than 75% of these financial institutions plan to boost their corporate financing volumes. This trend follows a period of economic strain and signals a potential shift towards growth-oriented financing.
According to the report, business loan approval rates have risen for three consecutive quarters, excluding foreign currency loans. Demand for corporate credit grew throughout the fourth quarter and the entirety of 2025, with banks expecting this demand to continue across all types of business loans into the first quarter of 2026.
Banks' willingness to grant consumer loans has also been increasing for three years in a row, pointing to positive developments in retail lending.
Risks and Forecasts
Despite this optimism, financial experts forecast heightened liquidity and credit risks for the first quarter of 2026, which could impact the overall banking sector. These projections highlight a confident mood among banks, though they underscore the need for careful risk monitoring going forward.
The expansion of business lending in Ukraine may indicate a recovery in economic activity and optimistic forecasts for entrepreneurial development.
However, potential risks arising from instability in financial markets must be considered. Continuous monitoring of the situation and the adaptation of banks' financial strategies will be crucial for maintaining stability within the sector.