According to the director of the Institute of Demography and Social Research named after M.V. Ptukha of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Ella Libanova, there is no expectation of mass emigration of the population after the war in Ukraine ends. Most women currently in the country are likely to stay here, while some men may go abroad. This forecast was provided as part of the program 'Orestocracy' on 'Hvylya'.
The expert noted that most women wishing to leave Ukraine due to the war have already realized their plans. Those who remain in place may not have been able to make their move under current conditions, as the status of refugees abroad has worsened. At the same time, support for Ukrainian women abroad experienced significant restrictions or was discontinued in 2022.
Regarding men, experts predict that after the conflict ends, emigration will mainly be observed among them. This will especially apply to situations where relatives are already abroad: if a partner has successfully adapted to a new life, has a job and social connections, and children are already studying in local schools, men may decide to join their family on a permanent basis, especially if they do not have their own housing or a stable source of income in Ukraine.
The demographer provides an unexpected forecast for the future regarding the emigration of Ukrainians after the war ends. According to experts, Ukrainian women currently in the country will mostly stay in place, while men may go abroad, especially if their family already lives abroad and has successfully adapted. Support for Ukrainian women around the world may be limited, which could influence the decision to stay or emigrate. This forecast could help the country better navigate future demographic and social processes.