Expiration of the START Treaty
On February 5, 2026, the term of the revised START treaty expired, leading to the absence of legal mechanisms that constrained the nuclear arsenals of the USA and Russia. Both countries hold between 1000 and 2000 warheads each, and the lack of an agreement threatens global security.
The START treaty provided legal mechanisms that controlled the number of nuclear warheads, but such mechanisms are now absent. Currently, no negotiations are underway to replace the agreement between the US administration and the leadership of the Russian Federation. The war in Ukraine complicates the prospects for resuming the negotiation process, making a return to discussions almost impossible.
Situation Analysis
A significant agreement requires invasive inspections to verify the dismantling of warheads. At this moment, the arsenals of the USA and Russia account for over 90% of the world's nuclear weapons, raising concerns in the international community. Experts note that countries that may lose incentives for restraint include:
- China
- South Korea
- Japan
- Poland
The analysis of the situation shows that the Russian side has systematically annulled or defrauded each of the treaties, trying to force Americans to exit them, while simultaneously deploying weapons that are explicitly prohibited by the agreements. Peter Zeihan, a security analyst, emphasizes that:
“The idea that American military and civilian personnel can conduct inspections in the Russian nuclear complex is unrealistic.” - Peter Zeihan
The expiration of the START treaty is an important milestone in global nuclear arsenal control, as it creates a vacuum in the deterrent system, which may prompt other countries to increase their own nuclear capabilities. In the context of escalating international tensions, the need to restore dialogue between the USA and Russia becomes even more urgent, as the absence of agreements can lead to new conflicts and escalation of tensions.