The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised its forecast for the hryvnia exchange rate against the dollar and expects that the psychological mark of 50 hryvnias will be surpassed only in 2029. The updated forecast was published in the October World Economic Outlook report for 2025. This is reported by RBC-Ukraine.
The fund's analysts noted that the average annual exchange rate of the hryvnia is expected to remain relatively stable in the medium term, while the pace of devaluation will be gradual.
Annual dollar exchange rate forecast against the hryvnia until 2030
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2025 - 42.3 UAH per dollar (previous forecast was 42.5);
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2026 - 45.4 UAH (previous April forecast - 45.6);
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2027 - 47.5 UAH (forecast unchanged);
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2028 - 48.7 UAH (previously 48.9);
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2029 - 50.0 UAH (down from previous 50.1);
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2030 - 51.3 UAH (instead of 50.6).
Thus, according to the updated scenario, the dollar will exceed the mark of 50 hryvnias only in four years, which indicates restrained inflation and a gradual restoration of financial stability in Ukraine.
GDP growth forecast for Ukraine in 2025
In addition to currency exchange rates, the IMF also assessed the prospects of the Ukrainian economy. The GDP growth forecast for 2025 remains at 2%, in 2026 a rise of 4.5% is expected, and in 2027 - up to 4.8%. The economic recovery is based on the assumption that the full-scale war of Russia against Ukraine will end by the end of 2025.
In the state budget for 2025, the government has set an average annual dollar exchange rate of 45 UAH, but new IMF calculations show that the national currency may actually be stronger - around 42.4 UAH per dollar. This gives hope that the Ukrainian economy is gradually returning to a more predictable dynamic.
Earlier we wrote that keeping savings in foreign currency is currently beneficial, although one should not expect large gains.