In Ukraine, the dollar has risen in price again — the official rate increased by more than 70 kopecks and as of October 24 stood at 41.9 Hryvnias. This is the highest figure since the summer of 2024. According to the Ministry of Finance and experts, these changes are related to the actions of the National Bank and the position of the International Monetary Fund. RBC-Ukraine writes about this.
Why the dollar exchange rate is rising in October
Since October 2023, Ukraine has been operating under a managed flexibility regime, where the dollar's value is determined by the market, but the National Bank intervenes to avoid sharp fluctuations. In October, the regulator sold less currency from reserves, which caused a dollar shortage in the interbank market.
According to Yuriy Krochmal, head of sales at Avantgarde Bank, the exchange rate fluctuated between 41.2 and 41.8 Hryvnias throughout the month. The largest currency deficit was observed in the middle of the month — over just four working days from October 13-17, it reached 361 million dollars, and on October 17 could exceed 500 million. To cover the demand, the National Bank sold 603 million dollars, which is 18% less than the previous week.
The role of the IMF and the position of the National Bank
Analysts at the investment company ICU explain that the National Bank has not rushed to actively intervene in the market this month, effectively allowing the Hryvnia to weaken. This is likely related to negotiations with the International Monetary Fund, which supports a policy of gradual devaluation of the national currency.
According to Bloomberg, the IMF believes that the weakening of the Hryvnia may help Ukraine increase budget revenues in national currency and improve macro-financial stability. The Fund insists on gradual devaluation as part of discussions on a new financing package of about 8 billion dollars.
Earlier, we wrote that experts from the International Monetary Fund predict that the average dollar exchange rate in 2025 may be 42.5 UAH.