Alexey Kushch's Forecast for a Second World-System War
Economist Alexey Kushch, speaking on political analyst Yuriy Romanenko's show, has predicted the potential outbreak of a Second World-System War after 2032, which he believes could last until 2040. Kushch stated that this conflict would center on the struggle for dominance in Asia, marking a major shift in the focal point of global confrontations. His analysis is part of a broader theory of long-term geopolitical cycles, suggesting a turbulent period ahead for international relations.
Kushch indicated that a current period of conditional 'truce' will end around 2032, after which the world will face severe challenges once more. As the economist noted,
“then we can expect another eight-year period of the Second World-System War. It will occur in a somewhat different location.”
Primary Zones of Potential Conflict
The main areas where this potential conflict could erupt include:
- The Indo-Pacific region
- A quadrilateral zone encompassing Turkey, the Middle East, India, and Central Asia
Kushch emphasized that
“it will be either the Indo-Pacific region, or the quadrilateral of Turkey, the Middle East, India, Central Asia. That is, these two locations, either simultaneously or alternately.”
Kushch stressed that the Second World-System War would be a fight for supremacy in Asia. He contrasted this with the First World-System War, which he says was focused on influence over Europe.
“The Second World-System War will be a struggle for dominance in Asia,”he stated.
Following the conflict's conclusion, a transition to a static phase is projected to begin, expected to be complete by mid-century. The post-war world order model anticipates the formation of a global tripartite power structure consisting of the United States, China, and the European Union. These forecasts point to significant shifts in international relations and geopolitical balances in the coming decades.
Alexey Kushch's predictions highlight Asia's growing centrality in the global political landscape, which could fundamentally alter the dynamics between nations. In the face of a potential new conflict, countries worldwide may be forced to reassess their strategic alliances and security approaches. This could lead to new economic and military integrations, as well as shifts in the foreign policy vectors of states seeking to secure their interests amid these global challenges.