Russia may need between five to ten massive attacks to seriously disrupt the functioning of the Ukrainian energy system, believes the director of energy programs at the Razumkov Center, Volodymyr Omelchenko. It is too early to talk about a significant shortage, but the highest risks will be for Kyiv in the winter. In light of this, the preparation of the capital for winter is crucial. This is reported by UNIAN.
How many attacks by the Russian Federation could lead to a shortage of electricity in 2026
According to Omelchenko's assessment, one or several attacks are not enough to cause significant problems with generation and transmission of electricity. For serious consequences, Russia would have to carry out at least five, and possibly ten, such attacks.
«In order for there to really be serious problems with capacity and transmission, there needs to be a minimum of five, or even ten, such attacks. Then we can talk about serious consequences and a significant shortage that may arise», — said the expert.
During the last attack, Russian troops targeted various components of the energy system: thermal power plants and CHP plants, hydroelectric plants, substations, and high-voltage lines. The exact scale of the damage is not disclosed for security reasons, so it is currently difficult to assess the impact of the strike on the system.
Omelchenko described this attack as the first massive combined attack focused on the largest energy facilities in the country and suggested that Russia might have started a new wave of strikes ahead of winter. At the same time, the mere fact of an attack does not yet mean that a shortage of electricity has already occurred in Ukraine.
What could the electricity shortage be in the winter of 2026-2027
According to the expert's baseline forecast, the next winter may not be worse than the previous one. However, during massive attacks at peak consumption times, the shortage could reach 4-5 GW. Last winter, the peak reached up to 7 GW.
The risks for the capital are higher because Russia can simultaneously attack Kyiv's thermal generation and the high-voltage lines that connect the region with the united energy system. Meanwhile, preparations for the cold are already underway in Kyiv: according to the city authorities, the preparation for the 2026-2027 season is approximately 80% complete, and backup power is being strengthened.
Omelchenko noted that the energy system has become more resilient, but the capabilities of air defense and interception of drones and ballistic missiles have diminished. Because of this, it is not worth evaluating risks solely based on the results of a single attack. The restoration of TPP after shelling remains an important factor: previously, energy workers of DTEK restored thermal power plants 68 times after attacks.
The consequences of the attacks will depend on whether energy workers can restore damaged facilities faster than Russia launches new strikes. This is especially important for Kyiv due to the city’s reliance on its own thermal generation and transmission lines. Read more about the preparation of the capital for winter and backup power in the article about Kyiv's readiness for the heating season.