Assessment of threats from Russia
Expert Igor Romanenko assesses the threats from Russia regarding Odessa and southern Ukraine, noting that Putin's main goal is the four illegally annexed regions. According to Romanenko, the plans for the seizure of Odessa at this time are impossible. He emphasized that the Black Sea Fleet of Russia does not appear in the conflict zone due to the losses their forces are experiencing.
Dmitry Pevtsov expressed the opinion that it is necessary to 'reach the beaches of Odessa', but Romanenko points out that the situation currently does not allow for such plans to be realized. He indicates that Putin's strategic goal is to cut Ukraine off from the Black Sea, which began back in 2014. At the moment, according to the expert, it is too early for the Russian military to prepare for landings on the beaches of Odessa.
The situation in Transnistria
Romanenko also notes that the Russian military base in Transnistria has about 6,000 servicemen, but this is not sufficient for a successful seizure of Odessa. Overall, in the expert's opinion, the seizure of Odessa at this time is impossible, which is confirmed by the situation in the conflict zone.
Romanenko's comments reflect the current military situation in the region and emphasize that, despite the ambitious statements of some Russian military personnel, the real capabilities for aggressive actions remain limited. The expert's assessment may indicate that the Ukrainian defense in the south of the country remains resilient, and Russian plans face serious challenges. The further development of events in the region may depend on changes in the military strategies of both sides and international support for Ukraine.