Experts on 2026: why it will be more challenging for Ukraine and what to expect
According to the results of 2025, experts from the Ukrainian Institute of Politics predict that the next year will be even more difficult for Ukraine. Key challenges will remain the domestic political crisis, dependence on external financing, and the exhausting war at the front.
The internal situation has worsened due to corruption scandals and the resignation of the head of the President's Office, which undermines the power structure. The external political context has radically changed: the Trump administration has virtually ceased direct budget financing for Ukraine, transferring the role of main creditor to the EU, which has agreed on a loan of 90 billion euros for 2026-2027. However, according to estimates by the IMF, Ukraine's needs are significantly greater – around 137 billion dollars. The economy remains vulnerable: the trade balance deficit reaches 35-36 billion dollars, and 79% of the budget financing depends on external sources.
War at the front and risks for the next year
On the front, an inertia scenario is expected with creeping Russian offensives and increased strikes on infrastructure. Expert Nikita Trachuk states:
'The year 2026 will turn out to be more difficult for Ukraine than the previous ones. The year 2025 was very challenging, and 2026 will most likely be even more difficult.' — Nikita Trachuk
Among the key risks for the next year, experts mention:
- deterioration of the internal situation,
- lack of success in the peace process,
- problems at the front.