Ukraine enters the fourth year of a full-scale war with deep macroeconomic imbalances. According to the baseline scenario, 2026 will bring only minimal economic growth against the backdrop of high inflation, a significant budget deficit, and further accumulation of public debt. UIF writes about this.
Ukrainian economic forecast for 2026: inflation and finances
According to UIF experts, inflation at the end of 2026 may reach about 9% if hostilities continue. In such a situation, the National Bank is likely to maintain the key interest rate longer than previously planned.
In the fiscal area, the forecast also remains challenging. The state budget deficit in 2026 is estimated at 21% of GDP, which is equivalent to about 48 billion dollars. The total public debt in the event of a protracted war may rise to 116% of GDP or about 258 billion dollars.
GDP and foreign trade
In the UIF baseline scenario, which anticipates the continuation of war and the receipt of international assistance in planned volumes, Ukraine's real GDP growth in 2026 will only be 1.2% after 1.6% in 2025. The nominal economy is estimated at 227 billion dollars, with an average annual exchange rate of the hryvnia at around 44 UAH per dollar.
Foreign trade will remain a significant challenge. The trade balance deficit is forecasted to reach 60 billion dollars or 26.4% of GDP. Export will continue to be hampered by logistical problems, loss of production capacities, and rising costs, while imports will continue to grow.
Experts note that without the end of the war and structural changes, Ukraine's economy will remain in a zone of increased risks and dependence on external support.
Recall that the international rating agency Fitch raised Ukraine's credit rating from 'restricted default' to 'pre-default' level CCC.