Russia's Grain Export Performance in the 2025/26 Season
Russia's grain exports have seen a significant decline in the first half of the 2025/26 season. Shipments of major grains fell by 18% compared to the same period last year. Data shows that from July to December 2025/26, Russia exported 33.9 million tons, a sharp drop from the 41.2 million tons recorded in the 2024/25 season. This represents a decrease of 17.6%.
Changes in Export Volumes for Key Grains
Specifically, wheat shipments decreased to 27.9 million tons, a 14% fall. Barley exports dropped by 27.9% to 3.2 million tons, while corn exports fell by 11.7% to 1.8 million tons. In light of these changes, experts anticipate that grain exports from the European Union will rise to 32.5 million tons, and Australia is prepared to supply up to 27 million tons of wheat. This shift highlights the dynamic nature of global food supply chains, where one major player's loss can be another's opportunity.
Elena Tyurina, an agribusiness expert, noted that the primary reason for the reduction in grain shipments, especially wheat, is intense competition in the global market.
Under these highly competitive conditions, she stated that Russia's actual export potential for the current season may be 44-45 million tons, even though it is formally estimated at 46-47 million tons. This indicates that global market competition continues to impact the export volumes of Russian grains.
The reduction in Russian grain exports amid growing global competition could have significant consequences for the country's agricultural sector. A decrease in supply volumes may affect grain prices in the region and alter the balance of power among major suppliers like the European Union and Australia. In an era of globalization and integrated agricultural markets, such trends could lead to substantial changes in the structure of international grain trade, particularly in the relationships between key players.