A diminished role on the world stage
Keith Kellogg, a former U.S. envoy, told Ukrainian journalist Natalia Moseichuk in an interview that Russia's war against Ukraine has cost it the standing of a global power. In his assessment, Moscow now barely qualifies as a regional player. He added that Russia has become the junior partner in its relationship with China — not an equal, and certainly not the senior one. Without Ukraine, he said, Russia has slipped from a global force to a regional one, and when the losses it has suffered are taken into account, its position looks even weaker.
Economic ties with China
Kellogg described the imbalance in Russian-Chinese economic ties: Russia sends oil, gas, and metals to China, while China supplies cars, smartphones, and electronics. He also noted that Beijing buys Russian commodities at a discount and has refused to fund new pipeline projects at market rates. The Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline, for instance, has been stuck for years. In 2025, bilateral trade between Russia and China declined by 7 percent, marking the first drop since the pandemic.
Kellogg went on to say that the United States controls most of the Middle Eastern oil flowing to China, and suggested Washington could offer China's leader Xi Jinping help with energy supplies in exchange for pressure on Moscow.
“Russia without Ukraine has gone from being a global power to a regional one. And with the losses it has suffered, it barely even reaches the regional level now. Look at its relationship with China: there it is the junior partner, not the senior one — not even an equal one.” — Keith Kellogg
These comments underline how the geopolitical balance has shifted since the start of Russia's war in Ukraine. Having once been widely perceived as a major global actor, Moscow now confronts new constraints and challenges, and its diminished international influence may have long-term consequences for both Russia and partners like China, with which it has struggled to deepen economic cooperation. His remarks arrive as debates intensify over Russia's long-term military and economic viability after its invasion of Ukraine.
The shifting dynamics of global power are further illustrated by the relationship between Moscow and Beijing. As highlighted by recent analyses, Xi Jinping's influence plays a crucial role in determining the duration of Putin's military ambitions, reflecting the extent of Russia's decreased standing on the world stage. This development raises questions about the future of Russia's geopolitical strategy and its reliance on China amid ongoing challenges.