Russia's Struggles According to Estonian Intelligence Forecasts
War fatigue, economic strain, and stalled military advances are creating a severe challenge for Russian President Vladimir Putin, according to Estonia's intelligence service led by Kaupo Rosin. In an interview published on May 18, 2026, Rosin highlighted that five years into the full-scale invasion, Russia is losing more soldiers than it can recruit, while the prospect of a general mobilization remains politically off-limits. The Russian economy, valued at $3 trillion, contracted by 0.3% in the first quarter of this year, signaling deep financial trouble.
Russian forces are currently recording some of their slowest territorial gains since 2023. During U.S.-mediated talks, Moscow has demanded that Ukraine withdraw its troops from Donbas—which includes the occupied Luhansk and Donetsk regions—but Kyiv has rejected this condition. Rosin anticipates that Moscow will continue covert sabotage operations in Western countries, though the Kremlin denies involvement.
'All of these factors together create a situation where some people in Russia, including at the highest levels, realize they have a major problem. It's hard to say what Putin thinks about this, but I believe these factors are beginning to seep into his decision-making process.' - Kaupo Rosin
He added: 'I think they are facing a very difficult choice right now. It's hard to predict what they will decide in this situation.' Rosin urged the West to intensify sanctions, stating: 'So my message is to keep pushing with sanctions. Now is not the time to hesitate, just keep going.'
An anonymous European intelligence official believes that Russia will not abandon its goal of capturing all of Donbas and is in no hurry to act. 'I find it very hard to imagine they will give up on taking the entire Donbas... and Russia, in principle, is not rushing anywhere,' he said. At the same time, he cast doubt on the prospect of internal changes in the Russian leadership: 'It would be wishful thinking to assume that Russia's leadership is somehow collapsing or that Putin is facing an internal challenge.'
Rosin also emphasized that 'military ambitions in Russia are very, very high,' and noted that Russia perceives the current situation as unlikely to escalate into a broader war.
Financial Reality and Military Strategy
According to Rosin's forecasts, after the war Moscow will aim to maintain a substantial military presence near Ukraine's borders, expand its forces along the NATO frontier, and pursue military dominance from the Arctic to the Black Sea. Intelligence sources attribute Russia's difficult financial situation to:
- sanctions targeting the financial sector;
- restrictions on oil exports.
The circumstances surrounding Russia point to serious challenges for its military and economic capabilities. Loss of manpower and negative economic indicators could influence the Kremlin's strategic decisions in the near future. Maintaining a large military force and continuing an aggressive regional policy suggest that Russia intends to sustain its involvement in the conflict despite internal difficulties. This could lead to further escalation of tensions not only in Ukraine but also in relations with NATO countries.
As the situation in Ukraine becomes increasingly complex, the Kremlin may be considering its next strategic moves. The pressure on Russia is mounting, and with options diminishing in Ukraine, analysts suggest that Moscow could turn its focus towards Europe, raising concerns about potential escalations beyond the current conflict.