Brussels- Geneva, February 2026. In Alden Biesen Castle, leaders of the European Union have completed the preparation of a fundamental plan to save the continent's industrial competitiveness. The project, based on a report by Mario Draghi, proposes an unprecedented volume of total debt borrowing - €4 trillion in the history of integration.
This step marks the final transition of the EU to a model of 'debt stimulation' in an attempt to narrow the technological gap with the US and China.
However, against the backdrop of Brussels' ambitious plans, signals are coming from Geneva and Moscow that could radically change the rules of the game in the global financial system.
'Draghi's Plan': Industrialization on Credit
The essence of the proposed mechanism is to annually mobilize €800 billion (about 5% of EU GDP) over five years. The funds are planned to be directed to the 'critical triad': artificial intelligence, energy infrastructure, and defense.
The critical vulnerability of this plan lies in its foundation. The precedent of the NextGenerationEU program showed that the market does not exhibit natural enthusiasm for European-wide debt - the main buyer of bonds ultimately turned out to be the ECB. Transforming an extraordinary instrument into a permanent financing mechanism risks turning Europe into a structure where economic growth is simulated through issuance, while fundamental problems - excessive regulation and high energy costs - remain unresolved.
The German Factor and the Threat of Destabilization
For Berlin, participation in the new debt architecture poses existential risks. According to analysts' forecasts, Germany's total public debt could exceed 110% of GDP by 2030 if the plan is implemented. Chancellor Merz and President Macron declare the need for 'urgent actions', but within the German establishment, there is a growing understanding that financing European social standards at the expense of Germany's credit rating could lead to an irreversible undermining of the national industry.
Geopolitical Turn: The Return of the Dollar
The most unexpected factor of the current week has been Bloomberg's reports of a 'common sense intervention' from the Kremlin. According to insider information, Moscow is considering the possibility of returning to transactions in US dollars as part of a dialogue with the Trump administration.
This maneuver, prepared by Kirill Dmitriev's structures, pursues two goals:
Stabilizing the balance: Reintegration into the dollar system will allow Russia to reduce the volatility of its payment balance.
Isolating the competitor: If Washington and Moscow reach an agreement to return the dollar to energy transactions, this will deprive Europe of its status as a privileged partner and enhance its financial isolation.
Conclusion
While Europe prepares for a massive issuance of bonds, hoping for institutional inertia, global players are moving towards direct financial Realpolitik. Brussels' attempt to 'flood with money' the structural lag may encounter a situation where the euro is caught between the resurgent dollar and Asia's industrial power.
In the world of 'Stage Six' according to Dalio, it is not the one who borrows the most who wins, but the one who maintains liquidity and access to key settlement instruments.