The state budget for 2015 has already been reviewed by the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine. However, the main indicators outlined in this bill are not being disclosed. Experts point out that the budget for the upcoming year will be anti-social. Their mood is as pessimistic as can be.
According to their estimates, observations, and forecasts, the next 2015 will be marked by a significant reduction in benefits for the population, an increase in the level of inflation, and consequently prices in the domestic market, prolonged currency fluctuations, and freezing of salaries, pension payments, and social assistance at one level.
This year, price increases, according to government forecasts, should be kept at 19.5%. However, in 2015, the inflation rate might drop to 13%. Nevertheless, many experts consider this unlikely. ‘The 13% announced by the government is overly optimistic,’ insists the head of the Committee of Economists of Ukraine, Andrei Novak. ‘In the current economic situation, the Cabinet has no other choice but to print money. This inevitably leads to inflation growth.’ On the other hand, funding from international centers and the stabilization of the situation in the currency market may slow down the price boom, writes rbn.cc.
The situation with social payments is different. The government will not spend its increasingly lower currency reserves on increasing them. In other words, the level of salaries and pensions, which used to be regularly increased several times a year, will now remain at the same level. An increase of up to 10% is only possible until the middle or end of autumn 2015.
The situation with the national currency exchange rate will not change significantly next year. The government assesses its ability to maintain the hryvnia at the level of 12.9 UAH/USD; however, considering that there are practically no levers to influence the exchange rate fluctuations left, and all previously used methods are ineffective, one should not expect a slight revaluation. At the same time, speculative operations continue to ‘stoke the fire’ in the interbank currency market.
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