Expectations in the Currency Market of Ukraine in January 2026
In January 2026, increased pressure on the Ukrainian hryvnia is expected due to the activation of clients in the currency market following the New Year holidays, as well as external factors, including possible peace talks between Ukraine and Russia mediated by the USA. Experts predict that this month will be a serious test for the national currency, with rising devaluation risks.
A key external factor that may influence the hryvnia exchange rate is the likelihood of peace talks. These events could significantly change the economic situation in the country. Additionally, decisions from the Federal Reserve System of the USA, scheduled for January 28, and the European Central Bank, which will take place on February 5, will be important. Both of these decisions could significantly impact global currency quotes.
At the same time, a budget deficit in Ukraine is expected to range from $3.8 billion to $7.9 billion in January. Against this backdrop, the reserves of the National Bank of Ukraine amount to $54.7 billion, which may influence the regulator's ability to support the hryvnia if necessary.
Expert Oleksiy Kozyriv notes that after January 10, all clients will return to their usual working regime, which will lead to an activation of operations in the currency market. This may intensify pressure on the hryvnia.
The optimistic scenario of events suggests that the dollar exchange rate in the interbank market may fluctuate between 42.50 and 43.20 UAH, while the cash dollar will be higher than the interbank rate by 20-40 kopecks. As for the euro, its cash value is forecasted to be at 49.50 to 51.40 UAH. In a negative scenario, the dollar exchange rate in the interbank market may rise to 42.80 to 43.70 UAH, and the cash dollar will exceed the interbank rate by 50-60 kopecks. The euro could reach 52.00 UAH and above in this case.
Expert Recommendations
In light of these forecasts, experts recommend diversifying savings:
- up to 40% in hryvnia instruments;
- up to 60% in foreign currency and gold.
This could help mitigate risks amidst potential currency fluctuations.
The situation in Ukraine's currency market in January 2026 will be influenced by both internal and external factors. It is expected that the activation of clients following the New Year holidays will intensify pressure on the hryvnia, and the likelihood of peace talks with Russia may become a key moment for changing the economic situation. In the conditions of a budget deficit and the necessity to support the national currency, it will be important to continue monitoring the decisions of international financial institutions.