Vitaliy Kulik's Commentary on Iraq and Iran
Political analyst Vitaliy Kulik, speaking on a program hosted by political scientist Yuriy Romanenko, argued that a large-scale ground invasion of neighboring Arab states by Iran is highly improbable. He described common scenarios where Iran seizes Kuwait or parts of Iraq, or storms Bahrain and Qatar, as unrealistic. Kulik stressed that the Iranian army has no plans to conduct ground operations beyond its borders.
The State of Iran's Military Resources
Vitaliy Kulik further noted that the infrastructure built up in Iraq between 2014 and 2026 is insufficient for launching military attacks. He emphasized that the Shiite militia formations present in Iraq are not full-fledged military units. According to the analyst, these forces cannot be deployed for large-scale military operations, such as an assault on Saudi Arabia.
'These are merely militias. This is not an army that can be moved from Iraq, for instance, to storm Saudi Arabia or anything else. That is nonsense.' - Vitaliy Kulik
Therefore, Vitaliy Kulik believes the likelihood of an Iranian ground invasion into neighboring countries is very low, given the available military resources and the regional situation.
Kulik's assessment highlights the complex military and political landscape of the Middle East, where tensions between Iran and Arab states remain elevated. The presence of militias in Iraq that are incapable of major action points to limitations in Iran's regional military reach. This analysis comes amid ongoing regional rivalries and concerns over potential escalation, though it suggests direct conventional warfare is not a primary tool in Iran's current strategy.
While Kulik downplays the chances of a direct ground invasion by Iran, understanding the broader context of Iran's military strategy is essential. The country appears to favor a different approach, focusing on attrition and escalation tactics rather than conventional warfare. This strategic shift may have significant implications for the stability of the region.