In the cold, transactional light of Munich-2026, the old world of 'values' has finally passed away. It was not Russian artillery that killed it, but a change in protocol: U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio ignores European leaders in favor of direct negotiations with Kyiv.
The signal is clear: Europe is no longer a subject of power.
'Paul Reynaud' as a Collective Portrait of Europe
Modern Munich has turned into a collective Paul Reynaud. This is a composite image of the 'energetic fighter' who, in May 1940, promised to fight 'before Paris and for Paris', while in reality leading the process of complete systemic collapse.
While Ursula von der Leyen declares European sovereignty and Friedrich Merz tries to find a balance between the economy and loyalty, their military-industrial complex remains a paper tiger. Statements about 'millions of shells' have crashed against empty warehouses and deindustrialization, turning European guarantees into a repetition of the French tragedy of May 1940.
The real bargaining now takes place strictly between the 'board of directors' in Washington and the only force that truly holds the eastern flank - Ukraine.
Dangerous Illusion: 15-Year Security Guarantees
However, during consultations with Jared Kushner, a dangerous illusion is laid on the table - 15-year security guarantees.
For American business, 15 years is the lifespan of an investment fund. For us, who have been in a state of war for the twelfth year, it sounds like an invitation to the next disaster.
We have already traveled the path from the 'Crimean crisis' to full-scale invasion, and we know: any pause without fundamental guarantees is just time to reload Russian weapons.
Offering Ukraine a 15-year shield against aggression that has lasted for 12 years and is aimed decades ahead is not a deal; it is a formalization of delayed surrender. The Kremlin operates in terms of historical revenge, not quarterly reports.
Survival Formula: Not 15, But 50 Years
If the Trump administration wants to truly 'close the question', it must build a system not for 15, but for 50 years.
Ukraine today is not an object of charity but a critical security node. We need not promises from the modern heirs of Reynaud, whose factories cannot produce a week's supply of shells, but a hard integration into the deterrent system.
Either Washington builds a long-term asset with us, relying on real capabilities and energy ties, or it simply invests in the next, even bloodier phase of the war.