Putin's Shrinking Influence Across the Post-Soviet Landscape
Herbert McMaster, a former U.S. national security adviser, has warned that Vladimir Putin's reach across the post-Soviet space is narrowing. During an appearance on the Hoover Institution's GoodFellows program, McMaster said Putin has effectively lost his grip on Kazakhstan and Armenia, two countries where Russian influence once ran deep. He also argued that Moscow's internal crackdown is getting harsher even as its external leverage fades.
"Putin has gotten rid of the only political party that spoke out against the war, and he keeps tightening the screws at home. Yet Kazakhstan is already pushing back, and Armenia has more urgent concerns—both places where he once had enormous influence." — Herbert McMaster
Kazakhstan and Armenia Chart a New Course
McMaster pointed to concrete signs of the shift. This past July, at a meeting in Omsk, Kazakhstan publicly urged Putin to bring the war to an end. Armenia, meanwhile, has suspended its participation in the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and signed a strategic partnership charter with Washington. For McMaster, these are clear indications that both countries are moving away from Moscow's orbit, and the trend signals a broader decline in Russian power.
Analysts at the Jamestown Foundation have likewise observed that Russia's army is too bogged down in Ukraine to maintain a military-security framework across the South Caucasus and Central Asia. McMaster cautioned that a weakened Putin could actually be more dangerous, because a cornered leader may seek new ways to escalate. He warned that this could produce fresh hostile actions directed at Europe and called on Western governments to anticipate the unpredictable behavior of a dictator operating from a position of weakness.
"A cornered Putin will look for somewhere to strike in order to shake the resolve of Ukraine's backers." — Herbert McMaster
These assessments underscore why Western policymakers should monitor political shifts in post-Soviet countries closely: any change in their foreign policy can have major consequences for regional security. As Kazakhstan and Armenia pull further from Moscow, those countries may open new avenues of cooperation with the West, potentially altering the region's overall power dynamic. For observers focused on European stability, the trajectory of these once-Moscow-aligned states is now a critical factor in the broader strategic picture.
As the geopolitical landscape shifts, the repercussions of Putin's diminishing influence are becoming increasingly evident. This aligns with insights from Trump's former security adviser, who argues that the Russian leader miscalculated the West's resolve. For a deeper understanding of how these dynamics are reshaping international relations, explore more about Putin's failed assumptions regarding the West's strength.