Middle East Situation Analysis
In a recent interview, former Ukrainian ambassador to Japan and Turkey, Serhiy Korsunsky, assessed the evolving Middle Eastern landscape following the death of Ali Khamenei and the launch of a large-scale operation against Iran. His analysis centers on the potential formation of an anti-Iran coalition, which could include the following nations:
- United States
- Israel
- United Kingdom
- France
- Spain
- Qatar
- Azerbaijan
- Turkey
- Arab states
The discussion also explores the possibility of a regime change in Iran and the internal forces, such as Kurdish Peshmerga units and other ethnic minorities, that the U.S. and Israel might leverage to achieve this goal.
The large-scale operation in Iran commenced after the death of Ali Khamenei. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commands a force of approximately 300,000 personnel. Iranian drones have struck Nakhchivan, resulting in four casualties. In response to these events, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev stated:
"Our armed forces have been given appropriate instructions in connection with the strikes by Iranian drones." - Ilham Aliyev
Concurrently, Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister, Gharibabadi, asserted: 'Iran does not strike neighboring countries. This incident requires a thorough investigation.'
Ukraine-Turkey Cooperation
The United States has requested Ukrainian anti-drone systems, prompting Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to offer the deployment of specialists instead. This request highlights a new avenue for Ukraine to demonstrate and export its expertise in counter-drone technology. Turkey's role in the region is also pivotal, given its NATO membership and control of the Bosporus Strait. Turkish policy is anchored on several fundamental principles, including:
- NATO membership
- Control of the Bosporus
- Support for Crimean Tatars
- Ukraine's NATO membership
Turkey has a proven track record in executing major infrastructure projects under President Erdogan's administration. These include the world's largest new airport in Istanbul, bridges across the Bosporus and the Gulf of Izmit, the Akkuyu nuclear power plant, and extensive railway and highway development. However, Turkey's purchase of Russian S-400 air defense systems led the U.S. to expel it from the F-35 fighter jet program. Erdogan has expressed willingness to sell back the S-400s in order to acquire F-35s.
Iran is a member of BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). In 2021, China signed a 25-year, $400 billion investment agreement with Iran. Russia has also inked a pact with Iran, similar in nature to its agreement with North Korea. These alliances underscore the complex geopolitical dynamics at play and the significant influence of major powers on regional developments.
The Middle East remains volatile in the wake of recent events, including Ali Khamenei's death and the international response. The potential creation of an anti-Iran coalition could dramatically alter the regional balance of power and spark new conflicts. Furthermore, Turkey's strategic activism within NATO, coupled with the competing interests of global powers like the U.S. and China, signals intensifying rivalry for influence in this crucial geopolitical arena. The unfolding situation presents both challenges and a potential strategic window for Ukraine to deepen its international partnerships.