Forecasts on Iran and Relations with Israel
Serhiy Korsunsky, a former Ukrainian ambassador, has outlined potential consequences should the current regime in Iran fall. He predicts that one of the first actions of a new government could be to recognize the state of Israel, paving the way for a restoration of diplomatic ties between the two nations. This assessment is supported by the stated intentions of Reza Pahlavi, the son of Iran's last Shah and a hereditary prince, who has declared he would recognize Israel's existence if given the opportunity to lead the country.
Korsunsky emphasized that if Iran were to cease being an Islamic Republic and revert to its historical identity as Persia, it would likely re-establish peaceful relations with Israel.
'It's like when you pull one thread, a whole cluster comes with it. Because if Iran stops being an Islamic Republic and transforms back into a normal Persia, they will immediately make peace with Israel, as it always was. Jews lived in Persia and felt perfectly fine,' he noted.The historical relationship between Persian empires and Jewish communities provides context for this perspective.
Turkey's Relationship with Israel
The former ambassador also addressed Turkey's strained relations with Israel, pointing out that the rift began approximately 15-16 years ago, primarily over the Palestinian issue. Korsunsky suggested that this complicates regional dynamics and that potential developments may not align with the interests of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.
'And therefore, this is also a course of events that does not particularly suit Erdoğan,' Korsunsky stated.
He further highlighted Erdoğan's recent comments, in which the Turkish president described the potential elimination of Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei as 'somehow not good.'
'Everything here is interconnected, like cogs in a mechanism that was set a long time ago to spin in different directions,' Korsunsky summarized.
In conclusion, these forecasts regarding Iran's future and its relations with Israel and Turkey point to the possibility of significant shifts in regional politics following a potential change of government. Under such conditions, monitoring developments is crucial, as new political realities could affect not only Iran but stability across the wider Middle East. Recognition of Israel by a new Iranian leadership would mark a major step toward regional peace, though questions remain about how other key players, like Turkey, would react to such changes.