Analysis of Russia-Armenia Relations
An examination of ties between Moscow and Yerevan following Azerbaijan's 2023 reclaiming of Nagorno-Karabakh reveals the Kremlin's ongoing efforts to steer political developments in Armenia, even as the country diversifies its foreign partnerships and shifts toward Europe. Vladimir Putin has described the Soviet Union's collapse as the 20th century's greatest geopolitical catastrophe, and after 1991, Russia wielded considerable soft power across the post-Soviet space. Yet despite a Russian military base in Gyumri—stationed there with Armenia's consent—and Moscow's early-1990s support that helped Armenia seize Nagorno-Karabakh, those investments have not paid off as expected. In 2023, Baku regained control over the disputed territory, with Russian peacekeepers taking no action to prevent it.
Political Changes in Armenia
Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, whose Civil Contract party enjoys 32% voter support, is working to realign the country's trajectory. In contrast, the pro-Russian Strong Armenia party, led by billionaire Samvel Karapetyan, holds only 6% backing. Currently, Russia accounts for over 35% of Armenia's trade turnover, compared to 11.8% with the European Union—a sign that Yerevan is gradually reducing its reliance on Moscow.
Armenia's parliamentary elections are set for June 7, and the Kremlin is exploring various influence tactics, including disinformation campaigns and transporting ethnic Armenians from Russia to sway the vote. As Bloomberg notes,
“Moscow's desire to reassert control over former Soviet republics runs deep within its domestic politics.”Political analyst Alexander Iskandaryan remarks,
“Russian leaders have never known how to leverage their neighbors' goodwill—their only concept of soft power involves tanks and natural gas.”
The Kremlin's revisionist approach has inflicted devastating consequences on Russia's neighbors, and Armenia—long the region's most pro-Russian country—has become the latest flashpoint. Cheap Russian gas and Eurasian Economic Union membership have proven insufficient compensation for the lack of security guarantees. According to experts, voting for the current government means choosing democracy, peace, and European integration, while backing the opposition risks a return to oligarchy and renewed dependence on Russia.
Moscow's response to Armenia's shifting stance includes blocking Armenian exports under the guise of sanitary violations and ramping up information campaigns. The Kremlin is unsettled by the European Political Community summit in Yerevan and Russia's exclusion from peace negotiations. Breaking free from Moscow's orbit could prove economically painful for Armenia, as the experiences of Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia have shown. Armenia seeks to end colonial-style relations that constrain its sovereignty, and Putin has urged the Armenian side to carefully weigh every move.
The situation between Armenia and Russia reflects broader geopolitical realignments in the region. Armenia is witnessing a surge in national consciousness and a desire for independence, which could fundamentally reshape its foreign policy. The upcoming elections may prove pivotal in defining a new national direction—one that aims to reduce dependency on Moscow and pursue deeper integration with European institutions.
As tensions rise ahead of the June 7 elections, the Kremlin's attempts to influence Armenia's political landscape become increasingly evident. For a deeper understanding of these developments and the strategies Moscow may employ to undermine Prime Minister Pashinyan's chances, explore our article on the Kremlin's plans for electoral interference.