McMaster on the Kremlin's Strategic Miscalculations
Herbert McMaster, who served as President Donald Trump's national security adviser from 2017 to 2018, told The Global Gambit that Moscow's leadership fundamentally misread the West in the context of the Ukraine war. He said Vladimir Putin expected to face a weak and divided West, but the opposite occurred: Europe surged ahead with new defense commitments, and both the European Union and NATO delivered major assistance to Ukraine.
Defense budgets across EU countries have nearly doubled over the last five years, reaching €392 billion in 2025, according to the interview. Ukraine also gained a credit line of €90 billion, while NATO allies are expected to allocate around €70 billion to arms supplies for Ukraine in 2025. McMaster recalled that during the Balkan wars in the 1990s, Europe proved unable to respond promptly, making U.S. intervention necessary.
Defense Spending and the Kremlin's Larger Goals
The former adviser stressed that the Kremlin's ambitions always extended well beyond Ukraine, focusing on rebuilding the Russian empire. As he put it:
“For Putin, everything is turning out very badly right now, because Europe has mobilized in a way he did not anticipate. He assumed the West was weak, morally decayed, and divided. Perhaps we are decayed and divided, but we are not as weak as he believed.” — Herbert McMaster
McMaster also outlined Moscow's broader destabilization tactics, including using proxy actors in Slovakia and attempting to sway Romania's election. The Kremlin's objectives, he said, are to broker a ceasefire unacceptable to Kyiv and Europe, split transatlantic ties, and destroy NATO.
These comments underscore how the global military balance is shifting and how essential Western cohesion is when responding to aggression. The rise in European defense spending signals that regional governments recognize the Russian threat and are adjusting their strategic postures accordingly, which could affect both the Kremlin's decision-making and the trajectory of the conflict in Ukraine.
As the situation continues to evolve, understanding the potential for escalation in the Ukraine conflict becomes increasingly crucial. Recent analyses highlight various scenarios that could unfold, shedding light on the Kremlin's strategic options and responses. For a deeper look into these possibilities and how they might impact the ongoing war, explore the insights from the Financial Times.