Pressure Intensifies on the Kremlin
Vladimir Putin is facing growing pressure from battlefield setbacks, economic strain, and Ukrainian drone strikes. These challenges have sparked discussions among Russian and European officials and analysts about possible ways for the Kremlin to exit the war. Late Monday night, Russia launched a wave of ballistic missiles and drones at Kyiv, killing at least four people and wounding dozens. In Dnipro, at least nine others lost their lives.
Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev commented on a Russian drone that struck a residential building in Romania, calling it 'only the first warning bell.' An analysis in the journal 'Russia in Global Affairs' suggests that Putin's military objectives are no longer achievable. The author, Russian scholar Vasily Kashin, notes that:
'eliminating the anti-Russian regime is impossible without a prolonged total occupation of the entire country, and for Russia, that is technically unfeasible.' Vasily Kashin
Amid these events, Ukrainian drone strikes—including one on a dormitory in occupied Starobilsk in Luhansk Oblast that killed 21 people—are fueling discontent inside Russia. In Crimea, fuel rationing has been introduced due to Ukrainian drone attacks disrupting logistics to the region. Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov has announced plans for sharp spending cuts, as the federal budget deficit has reached 11 trillion rubles (about $150 billion). Valery Gartung, a member of the 'A Just Russia' party, swore during a parliamentary speech while describing the budget hole and asking: 'What are we going to do about it? Print money?'
Economic Hardship and Military Losses
Russia's frontline losses are mounting rapidly, with tens of thousands killed or wounded each month. As Mikhail Khodorkovsky noted:
'previously, nearly half of the wounded returned to the front. Now they cannot do that.' Mikhail Khodorkovsky
Russia's economic situation remains tense despite high oil prices. This complicates troop replenishment and raises concerns about further escalation of the conflict. Tatiana Stanovaya observes that 'escalation is the only way to respond to a situation you cannot control.'
Given these circumstances, the Kremlin may attempt to revive stalled negotiations on its own terms, as battlefield conditions and financial resources continue to dwindle. Alex Younger notes that 'there is a scenario where Russia simply runs out of steam.' Parliamentary elections in Russia are scheduled for September, which could add further pressure on the Kremlin to find a way out of the war.
The growing pressure on the Kremlin reflects not only military defeats but also economic difficulties that could significantly impact Russia's domestic politics. Preparations for the parliamentary elections may force the authorities to seek compromises or alternative strategies to exit the war in order to maintain public support. At the same time, rising public discontent could lead to additional social and political problems for the Russian leadership.
Amid the ongoing turmoil, the Kremlin's reluctance to adjust military expenditures reflects a steadfast belief in ultimate victory, despite mounting losses and economic strain. This stance is further complicated by the reality of battlefield setbacks. For a deeper look at Putin's unwavering commitment to military spending, explore how it contrasts with the current pressures facing Russia in our detailed analysis on military funding and strategy.