Forecasts of Hryvnia Devaluation
Financial expert Oleksiy Kozyrev predicts moderate devaluation of the Hryvnia until the end of the year and outlines two possible scenarios for its development in 2026. According to him, by the end of 2023, the Hryvnia may lose up to one Hryvnia. It is expected that by the end of the year, the exchange rate of the dollar will be around 43.00 UAH on the interbank market, while the cash dollar rate will fluctuate between 42.80 and 43.50 UAH. The euro rate, in turn, is expected to be between 50.00 and 51.00 UAH.
The National Bank of Ukraine has record foreign exchange reserves of 54.7 billion dollars. This may positively affect the stability of the Hryvnia exchange rate in the short term. Oleksiy Kozyrev notes:
"I expect it [devaluation] somewhere within up to one Hryvnia more." – Oleksiy Kozyrev
He also adds that "then we will be approaching somewhere around 43-44 Hryvnias actually already in January.".
Scenarios for Exchange Rate Development in 2026
Speaking about forecasts for 2026, the expert outlines two scenarios:
- Sharp jump: implies significant fluctuations in the exchange rate;
- Smooth devaluation: will be characterized by a gradual decrease in the value of the Hryvnia.
According to Kozyrev, devaluation may occur gradually, "somewhere around 20-30 kopecks... per dollar and around 50 kopecks each month per euro".
In the budget for 2026, the average annual dollar exchange rate is set at 45.7 UAH per dollar. At the same time, the savings of Ukrainians show diversity: about 50% of total savings are in Hryvnias, 60% in euros, and 40% in dollars. This indicates that the population is trying to diversify its financial risks in the face of uncertainty in the foreign exchange market.
Oleksiy Kozyrev's forecasts regarding Hryvnia devaluation reflect trends that may influence economic stability in Ukraine. Storing funds in various currencies may be a strategic step for Ukrainians, indicating their caution in financial matters. In light of global economic challenges, such forecasts may become important for shaping financial policies and adapting businesses to changing conditions in the foreign exchange market.