In October, the Ukrainian currency market is facing increased turbulence due to the end of the financial year and the political crisis in the USA, which has led to a 'shutdown'. Global market investors are nervously reacting to the uncertainty, which has already resulted in record increases in gold prices.
International Storm: Impact of the 'Shutdown' in the USA on Euro/Dollar
The key factor affecting the markets remains the political standoff in the USA around the budget, which has led to a partial 'shutdown'. This situation works against the US dollar and creates ideal conditions for speculators.
Financial expert Oleksiy Kozyrev emphasizes that uncertainty leads to fluctuations in the market, particularly in the euro/dollar pair. Speculation can lead to instability and force investors to seek shelter in gold.
Internal Risks and Forecasts
Internal factors in Ukraine also affect the currency market. For example, the start of a new month and quarter reduces business activity, while the harvest increases the supply of currency on the interbank market. However, the heating season prompts the government and 'Naftogaz' to purchase currency in the market.
The expert also notes the increase in state debt, which may hinder the devaluation of the hryvnia due to rising external debt servicing.
Exchange Rate Forecast for October 2025
Oleksiy Kozyrev predicts that the National Bank may need between 530 to 720 million dollars to support the hryvnia in October. The projected corridors of the exchange rate on the interbank and cash market are as follows:
Interbank:
- US Dollar: 40.90 - 41.55 UAH/USD.
- Euro: 48.10 - 48.85 UAH/EUR.
Cash Market:
US Dollar:
- Banks: 40.70 - 41.70 UAH/USD.
- Exchange Offices: 40.90 - 41.65 UAH/USD.
Euro:
- Banks: 47.80 - 49.00 UAH/EUR.
- Exchange Offices: 48.10 - 48.90 UAH/EUR.
The expected spread in exchange offices will be 20-25 kopecks for both the dollar and the euro.
In October, the financial situation is affecting the Ukrainian currency market due to increased turbulence resulting from political and economic circumstances in the world. Investors and experts anticipate fluctuations in currency rates and the possibility of changes in the market amid uncertainty.