What the Death of Iran's Supreme Leader Means for Ukraine
International policy expert Ilia Kusa, speaking with political scientist Yurii Romanenko, analyzed the consequences for Ukraine of the death of Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the escalating Middle East crisis. Kusa noted that any regional destabilization, particularly around Iran, drives up global oil prices, and the primary beneficiary of this crisis is Russia. He stressed that only Moscow gains from higher oil prices, while Ukraine suffers. This dynamic underscores how global energy markets directly impact the war in Ukraine.
The expert also highlighted a second critical factor for Ukraine: the diversion of U.S. attention and resources. America is once again forced to focus on managing Middle Eastern conflicts. Kusa expressed the view that the new U.S. administration had planned to disengage from the region, but the current situation compels a renewed focus there, potentially at the expense of other priorities.
Potential Conflict Scenarios and Their Consequences
Discussing how the conflict might unfold, the experts referenced a 'Venezuela scenario.' According to Kusa, in such a development, neither side achieves a definitive victory, and the system becomes deadlocked. He predicts that external players would temporarily step back, and Iran's internal crisis would be frozen in place.
“The situation reaches a stalemate, and the United States, Israel, and Iran back away from each other, and everything freezes again until the next social explosion inside Iran itself” — Ilia Kusa.
Yurii Romanenko compared the elimination of the Iranian leadership to a precision strike, noting it was 'surgically precise' and that all services were coordinated. Kusa emphasized that such a war does not lead to the strengthening or overthrow of power but 'stops halfway, a sort of 'Venezuela variant.'' He also stated his belief that this prolonged conflict is not in Ukraine's interests, as its continuation will lead to even greater problems.
“My understanding is that Iran is playing precisely for this — to prolong the war, to turn it into a war of attrition” — Ilia Kusa.
The death of Ali Khamenei could have serious repercussions not only for Iran but for global politics, particularly relations between the U.S., Israel, and Russia. The predicted rise in oil prices due to regional destabilization could further complicate Ukraine's economic situation. Simultaneously, the diversion of U.S. attention from supporting Ukraine due to its focus on the Middle East could negatively impact Ukrainian foreign policy and security.