Statement from Andriy Kovalenko
According to Andriy Kovalenko, head of the Center for Countering Disinformation, Belarusian self-declared president Alexander Lukashenko has issued no orders for a ground operation against Ukraine. Kovalenko emphasized that Belarus lacks the military capacity to carry out such an offensive, and that Minsk’s recent actions are merely a simulation of activity.
'Lukashenko is not preparing any ground operation. No such declaration has been made, and Belarus currently does not have the forces capable of conducting a ground operation. Everything Belarus is doing now is simulating some kind of intense activity, including information waves.' Andriy Kovalenko
He further warned that any aggressive moves by Belarus could backfire on the country itself. 'In reality, any aggressive actions would automatically become a mistake,' Kovalenko added.
Lukashenko’s Meeting and Arms Plans
On May 11, Lukashenko chaired a meeting focused on equipping the Belarusian military. He announced preparations for a new state armament program covering 2026–2030. At the same time, Lukashenko stressed that Belarus’s territory is not a desert and cannot be compared to the Ukrainian steppes. These remarks signal Minsk’s intent to bolster national defense amid the current geopolitical climate.
Kovalenko’s comments suggest that despite Minsk’s military posturing, its actual potential for aggressive action against Ukraine remains limited. This could shape strategic decisions for both Ukraine and its Western allies, including how they assess threats from Belarus. Meanwhile, Lukashenko’s plans to enhance defensive capabilities reflect a desire to strengthen the country’s standing in a tense regional geopolitical environment.
While Andriy Kovalenko reassures that Belarus is not poised for a ground offensive, the situation remains fluid. Recent developments, such as the mobilization of officers and the deployment of missile systems, indicate a potential escalation in military readiness. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for assessing the broader implications for Ukraine. For more on the increasing military threats from Belarus, see the latest insights on Belarus's military actions.