Transnistria's Current Situation
According to Maksym Zhorin, deputy commander of the Third Army Corps, Russia currently lacks the necessary forces to defend Transnistria, making this the perfect moment for Moldova—potentially backed by Ukraine—to reclaim the breakaway region. Transnistria, an unrecognized entity on the Dniester River's left bank, has hosted a contingent of Russian armed forces since 1992, adding to regional instability. This strip of land, internationally recognized as part of Moldova, sits between Moldova and Ukraine, creating a persistent flashpoint.
Since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, security around Transnistria has deteriorated sharply. In response, Moldova has declared the Russian operational group's command in the region persona non grata and, together with the EU and the U.S., is crafting a reintegration plan for Transnistria. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has also voiced concerns over new threats from the area, particularly after Putin issued a decree simplifying Russian passport issuance for Transnistrian residents.
Maksym Zhorin's Remarks
“Moldova should have resolved the Transnistria issue long ago. But since the start of the full-scale war, the ideal time for this has arrived.” – Maksym Zhorin
Zhorin emphasized that Russia lacks the resources to deploy units to protect the region. “It's clear that Russia currently doesn't have enough resources to send full-fledged units there for defense. It's time to take back the occupied territories. And I think we would find a way to support such an operation,” Zhorin added. He further stressed that Moldova “is fully capable of militarily de-occupying Transnistria in the short term.”
The situation in Transnistria remains critical, as active steps by Moldova, combined with Ukrainian support, could dramatically reshape relations with the unrecognized territory. Given Russia's evident difficulties in maintaining a military presence there, the prospect of de-occupation grows increasingly realistic. This underscores the need for strong international backing and close coordination among Moldova, Ukraine, and their Western allies to stabilize the region.
The geopolitical landscape in Transnistria is further complicated by Russia's recent move to ease passport access for its residents. This decision may bolster Moscow's influence in the region, adding urgency to the discussions surrounding Moldova's potential military action. As the situation evolves, understanding the implications of these developments is crucial for grasping the broader context of stability in Eastern Europe.