The European Commissioner for Enlargement, Margherita Kostić, outlined the schedule: Montenegro may first join the EU (not earlier than 2028), followed by Albania. Brussels emphasizes 'loyalty to values', however, real deadlines are dictated not by ideology, but by cold macroeconomics.
1) The Energy Foundation of Survival
Attempts by Brussels to maintain optimism about expansion are stumbling against the reality of energy shortages. Belgium officially completed its shift by extending the operation of the 'Doel-4' and 'Tihange-3' reactors until 2035 and effectively canceling the phased abandonment of nuclear power.
This acknowledgment marks a stage of industrial euthanasia. Under conditions where energy costs for industries in Europe remain significantly higher than those for competitors in the USA or China, the 'green dream' is sacrificed for the physical survival of productions. Old Europe no longer possesses surplus resources for large-scale integration projects. The priority is not expansion, but maintaining its own technological base.
2) The Budget Arithmetic of 'Small Expansion'
The choice of Montenegro and Albania is a pragmatic calculation. The combined GDP of these countries does not create a critical burden on the union's budget. Their accession does not require a radical revision of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), which underpins the stability of France, Poland, and Germany. This is merely a 'cosmetic repair' of the EU facade, designed to demonstrate dynamics where it does not cost much.
3) The Agricultural Trap
The absence of Ukraine on the expansion lists for the next decade is not a 'technical pause', but an economic death sentence. Including a country with such agricultural potential and scale of destruction would instantly nullify the European subsidy model. Brussels is not ready to sacrifice the well-being of its farmers for the sake of expanding the perimeter.
In the new world architecture, which Washington and Beijing are preparing to finalize in May, the region is assigned the role of an external security zone, whose maintenance costs will be maximally optimized.
Conclusion
The European Union is not 'expanding' in the classical sense; it is cocooning itself into a 'small fortress'. The year 2027, with its elections in France and crisis in Germany, will attempt to assemble a new, more closed model of governance.
The plans for 2028 are an attempt to solidify the periphery before the great powers finally reshape the map of resource flows. For us, this means that European integration remains a virtual carrot until the real beneficiaries determine the final format of asset exploitation. The process is moving towards the creation of a compact cluster, where there is simply no room in the budget for new large and problematic players.